Thai Baht - Japanese Yen

It seems the Thai Baht is getting weaker now, not long time ago, during my vacation in Thailand, you got only about THB 2600,- for Yen 10.000,-.

During the last days, this changed and now you get THB 2900,- for Yen 10.000,-, more than 10 percent more than at the beginning of the last week.

CLICK on this graphic, to see the present situation (Citibank, Japan)
[attachment=3231:jpythb.gif]

I think, other currencies will follow soon - maybe the USD (now around THB 34,-) will soon be back to THB 40,- for USD 1,-?

Edited by yohan, 16 August 2007 - 01:19 PM.

I've noticed signs that the Baht is starting to weaken against the GBP also in the last week or so. This would be very good new for me if it continues. I remain convinced there is a significant correction on it's way regarding the THB.

The Thai Baht is getting a bit weaker but it is the Japanese Yen that is getting a lot stronger.

Quote

Bluecat, on 2007-08-16 21:14:48, said:

I think, it is just the opposite.

The difference between YEN - USD is about 5 percent, and the difference between YEN - Thai Baht is over 20 percent...

I would say, the Thai Baht is getting MUCH weaker, and the Japanese Yen is getting a LITTLE BIT stronger.

CLICK on this graphic, to see the present situation (Citibank, Japan)
THB-YEN Citibank, 17/AUG/2007

[attachment=3233:jpythb.gif]

Edited by yohan, 17 August 2007 - 09:27 AM.

This is off shore rate, Yohan, not on shore.
On shore the Thai Baht went down only a few % against the US$ while the Yen went up about 10% in the last few weeks.
Were you paying the off shore rate when you were in Thailand?

I see not much difference, Bluecat
I am not in Thailand.

1 - Citibank Tokyo yen-thb 3039 buying THB
2- SCB Bangkok thb-yen 3024 buying YEN

almost same....

Today, you're right, the off shore rate is getting closer to the on shore rate while the difference was about 10% when you were in Thailand.
The reason the graph of the off shore rate shows a big jump in the value of the yen compared to the Baht.

Im getting a few more Baht for my dollar.
When I see 5-7 more baht ( per dollar ), I will get back to investing.
It is good to see a more realistic exchange but let's wait a little more time before we start breaking out the Dom.

I'm certainly no expert in finance and economics, but on the broader canvas the current situation in Thailand certainly does seem to me to be eerily like the run-up to the 1997 crisis. For instance, right after the Bank of Thailand injected US$2 billion into the economy, someone there was quoted by the media as saying the injection had nothing to do with the weakening baht.

I've read in numerous articles by people who do know about such matters that a more realistic exchange rate against the Yank dollar is in the 41-43 baht per dollar area; a few offer 43-45 as that level. (Yes, I have a vested interest -- my sole income is in U.S. dollars. I first started getting that just before the baht hit about 58 to the dollar, so now at 34 I've lost, in baht terms, about 40% of my income, as my dollar income has'nt changed at all.)

The outcome of today's referendum, whatever it may be, I would hazard to guess will have an effect on the baht in particular and the overall economic situation in general.

The strong growth in the yen surely must be a factor as well...

Currency exchange rates are more or less based on speculation.

From an economic view, an exchange rate of about THB 38,- to 42,- should be OK, and THB 3.300,- for yen 10.000,-.

The yen is too low and the Thai baht is still too high, some adjustments are required. Some speculants are dreaming even of an exchange rate of baht 25,- to USD 1,- but I think, this dream will not work out in the near future.

Click on this graphic (Citibank, Tokyo)

Baht - Yen

Baht is down again at the beginning of this week...

[attachment=3251:jpythb.gif]